Login	Help
Username:
Password:
Remember Me:
Register as guest

Forecasting

Look Toward the Future
Each year, JupiterResearch analysts develop over 50 market forecast models measuring all facets of the Internet economy, such as Internet commerce, online advertising spending, and consumer technology adoption. JupiterResearch forecasts provide a framework for understanding markets and help clients do the following:
>> Identify key opportunities
>> Prioritize investment devisions
>> Evaluate the drivers of growth and cost

Expect Reliability and Accuracy

Fig. 1 Forecasts Undertaken from 2000 to 2004

Note: Accuracy analysis includes JupiterResearch's major US market forecasts around online access, technology platform adoption, online commerce, and online advertising undertaken from 2000 to 2004. © 2005 JupiterResearch, a division of Jupitermedia Corporation

JupiterResearch has a strong track record of reliability and accuracy in its forecasting. Virtually all of JupiterResearch's market forecasts undertaken from 2000 to 2004 have proven accurate one year out, while over two-thirds have done so two years out. The vast majority of JupiterResearch's forecasts from the mid-1990s were also on target or conservative.

Fig. 2 US Online Households, 1998 to 2004

Note: No forecast was produced in 2003. © 2005 JupiterResearch, a division of Jupitermedia Corporation

Rigorous Methodology

JupiterResearch applies a rigorous methodology to its forecast research, starting with a thorough understanding of current market trends for each sector and backed by Jour proprietary consumer and executive surveys. Armed with these tools, Jupiter analysts then use a variety of quantitative methods for predicting the future: >> Analogous Markets -- Comparing future Internet growth to historical developments in broadly similiar markets. This could invlude comparable case studies (such as studying the growth of the catalog market to forecast consumer online commerce), exploration of more developed markets in other countries, or analysis of real-world consumer behavior. >> Consumer Intention Surveys -- Asking consumers how interested they are in various technologies or online activities. >> Scorecard Analysis -- Defining, weighting, and scoring the driving forces of any given market. The combined weighted scores provide a systematic way of assessing the future relative differences between market sectors, product lines, or regions. >> Segmentation Analysis -- Segmenting a market into specific drivers and inhibitors to narrow down the field of assumption and base-year research. >> Historical Trend Analysis -- Projecting a market into the future based on its historical growth rates. JupiterResearch's forecast methodologies are designed by a dedicated team of forecast analysts with backgrounds in market research, consulting, and finance. Their preliminary findings are thoroughly debated by a large, cross-disciplinary group of JupiterResearch analysts who apply their judgment and expertise to refining the assumptions in each forecast model. In this way, JupiterResearch forecasts are a reflection of the collective sensibility and experience of our entire analyst team.

Fig. 3 US Online Commerce Revenues, 2000 to 2004

Note: 2004 forecast conforms to actual figures for 2000-2003, while 2004 figure is preliminary pending model update. © 2005 JupiterResearch, a division of Jupitermedia Corporation